Slippage -noun 1. an act or instance of slipping. 2. an amount or extent of slipping. 3. failure to maintain an expected level, fulfill a goal, meet a deadline, etc.; loss, decline, or delay; a falling off. 4. Machinery . the amount of work dissipated by slipping of parts, excess play, etc.
I am getting frustrated with the amount of time it is taking to get out of this recession. As I was watching Meet the Press on Sunday, August 22, 2010, they cited a study that said 40% of working professionals would quit their jobs tomorrow if they had somewhere else to go! The main reason for that statistic; everyone is doing multiple jobs and the work day has grown longer and more stressfull. We're all working harder than ever because we believe there is an end in sight! Ever vigilant in my belief that things are getting better, I took a deep breath and read the latest forty-six (46) page, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch report. The latter delineates what those entities are advising their customers to do with their money and why. Among some of their economic observations were:
China: "Many US multinationals which have spent years building all businesses in China are beginning to see meaningful results. As incomes rise and urban spending patterns gradually spread to rural areas, these companies should benefit from and expanding market and trade out by consumers to better quality brands." An excellent example, "in the first half of this year, China became the largest handset market in the world. China is, however, still largely under penetrated with regard to many products and industries. In our view, China is progressing to the next leg of economic development: from export-led growth, which was followed by construction and investment-led growth, to now transitioning to domestic consumption-led growth, driven by rising per capita income. China has built airports but still need to aircraft and jet fuel; China has built highways still needs trucks and diesel fuel; China has built new cities but still needs air conditioners and refrigerators." We are, my friends, poised to sell a ton of stuff to China in the very near future. Is that great news? The 2nd largest market in the world!!!
The report also states with respect to the US, "Our Bank of America/Merrill Lynch economics team does not forecast a double dip, but sees growth slowing from 2.9% in 2010 to 2.4% in 2011. This is mostly from slower growth in household consumption, new homes and inventories." The same group is, "... forecasting 4.5% increase in global growth in 2010 and 4.1% in 2011 led by emerging economies." Do you hear any of this in the media? Do you hear it from anywhere? The major threat to our recovery, according to the report? Government Uncertainty including health care, regulations, taxes and interest rates.
Here at Lukins & Annis, we see our business clients making a comeback. As money begins to become available, deals are coming together. Companies want to expand and provide more and better products to their customers. Spokane is poised to rebound!
We are currently in a state of slippage. We were making progress for awhile and now we're stalled. Politicians are protracting the recession by refusing to collaborate and exchanging repeated negative comments about the economy in the press. The press exacerbates these opinions from all sides and the consumer won't spend. The press even chides those who are optimistic. The economy is poised to make a comeback, but the dissection of every bit of negative data reinforces the fear consumers have about the future. Meanwhile, it seems very few "journalists" are capable of reading a thoughtful, easy to obtain, report about what probably will happen, most of it positive.
I've talked a great deal about the economy, but I know more about old cars than economics. I had a 1963 Rambler once, with a clutch that was constantly slipping. I could never get to top speed because the engine had to work harder, (more revolutions per minute) to make up for the slipping clutch. The engine in our current situation are US business interests and their actual and potential workforce. The clutch is our elected officials from all parties. Any way you want to look at it, it is time to get a new clutch or rebuild the old one. . .
